MacRaven - Dave Haxton's Weblog

Thu, 03 Aug 2006

Iran warns of $200 oil if US pursues sanctions

And the 82nd Airborne would be in Tehran in a week - possibly joined initially by the Chinese. I doubt if they'd go to Caracas with us. The EU (with most of NATO) and the UN would erupt in a cacophony of noise. The US would withdraw from both. The Russians would be rubbing their hands with glee, the Pakistanis would be running for cover and the Indians would be furious about Chinese participation in anything with the US.

Saudi Arabia would erupt, but in a lot less noisy and more serious way than Europe. And quite probably turn off the taps on their oil, too. At least temporarily. They'll say.

The US economy would grind to a halt, the President would declare a state of emergency, dissolve Congress and suspend elections. The American Empire that everyone's been expecting will have finally arrived, although, like Rome, we'll probably hold onto the trappings and the rhetoric of democracy for a while.

This is probably an overly pessimistic analysis of what happens if we sanction Iran. Unfortunately, this is probably an overly optimistic scenario if we don't sanction Iran, and the Iranians pass a bomb to their buddies in Hezballah. Then both Tel Aviv and Isfahan would be glowing in the dark, in addition to the dire sloggings posited above...

Why is it getting warmer, and why are we in this handbasket?

Reuters - Global oil prices could hit $200 per barrel if the United States pursues sanctions against Iran for its nuclear development program, an Iranian official told Venezuelan state TV on Thursday.

(link) [Yahoo! News: Top Stories]

/Politics | 4 writebacks | permanent link

On 8/3/2006 13:31:49
Bjorngrímnir wrote

In a bit of a bleak mood today, I see. Well, with all that's going on in the news, along with the weather-gone-berserk, it's scarce wonder. I hope that things don't go this way...I hope that Iran says that they will only stop their nuke program if Bush steps down and Gore takes over, and that Bush (in the interest of keeping that peace he claims to love) steps down so Gore can take over. Then no cities have to glow, and we can get a President who actually cares about the environment (both ecological and political-cultural).

On 8/3/2006 21:07:44
Stephen Williamson wrote

It has felt like we're on the brink of something enormous for a long time. I wasn't old enough to notice (Hel, I barely remember Mulroney and Reagan), but did it feel this way during the Cold War? Were people this nervous all the time about world events? I wonder if the world felt like this when Archduke Ferdinand was killed.

On 8/4/2006 00:20:03
Dave H wrote

Cold Warriors

Hailsa Stephen: Speaking as a "Boomer", I remember my uncle digging a bomb shelter in the early 60's - so yeah, we were pretty freaked out then. But later, in the 60's and 70's, things calmed down somewhat, and nobody was very worried. Bomb shelters became storm shelters, and everyone just assumed that if there was a nuclear war, it'd be the end of everything, so why bother. And given the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, and a more or less rational enemy, we plunkered along. Then towards the end of the Carter Administration the Soviet Union got a bit unstable in it's leadership. The old guard was dying off, and with the invasion of Afghanistan it became apparent that something had to change. With Reagan rattling nukes, we got a whole lot more nervous in the 80's, but at least he had a vision and a purpose, and IMHO it more or less worked: drive the Soviets into a technological arms race that they couldn't win, and bankrupt them in the process, always prepared to negotiate reductions in forces. Once the "Evil Empire" collapsed, the good times rolled. Until we met a new enemy, one trained by us to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan: radical Islam and Osama. The old paradigms don't apply: these guys aren't rational at all, and in fact volunteer to die for the cause. Never mind that if we started tossing nukes Muhammad would run out of virgins pretty quickly. They're nuts, and telling them we'll kill them if they mess with us essentially has no effect at all. Which is what's making me really, really nervous now. Thanks for the comments and Be well, Dave H.

On 8/4/2006 01:46:49
Bjorngrímnir wrote

One of the things I think this era has in common with the Cold War era is the heavy pushing on 'National Security'. I have memories of the Reagan era, where any and everything could be done under the veil of national security; and it seems like Dubya's trying to sweep everything under that same veil.

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